KIM Report

Newsworthy Week For Canadian Diamond Companies

Posted by David

It has been an exciting week thus far for the Canadian diamond industry. A few major news releases from junior Canadian diamond exploration companies has shown that the industry is climbing out of its stagnation from the past couple of years.

A New Mine for Nunavut, Again

A curious development in the Canadian diamond scene occurred with Shear Minerals‘ announcement that they were purchasing 100% of the Jericho diamond mine in Nunavut. Shear will purchase the mine for $2,000,000 and 80,000,000 common shares. The bulk of this will be paid to the main creditor of Jericho’s bankrupt owner (Tahera Diamonds). The main creditor is CAZ Petroleum Ltd. Other terms of the deal is that CAZ will get a 2% royalty on mine production and be allowed to appoint one member of Shear’s board of directors. Though extremely dilutive (they are looking to raise funds of $15 million by private placement), this move may give Shear an income stream within a couple of years. The problem with the Jericho mine is that $/ton value is somewhat lower than at Ekati or Diavik. Grade ranges from 0.34 to 1.49 c/t and average diamond value from (US) $78/c to $112/c as given in the NI 43-101 report. It is also significantly further north than the other mines. Narrow margins mean that diamond prices must remain high, the ice-road season be lengthy, a stronger US dollar, and mining be problem-free in order to draw a profit from Jericho and avoid Tahera’s fate. However, Shear does benefit from Tahera’s case study example in what a junior should avoid in operating an Arctic diamond mine. Should the economy remain strong, SRM should have a decent chance at making the mine work.

More Kimberlites at Chidliak

The other bit of significant news this week comes from Peregrine Diamonds where they continue to find new kimberlites with relative ease at their Chidliak property (Baffin Island). The company reports eight new kimberlite finds: two by drilling and six by surface prospecting. The latter discoveries seem to characterize the direction of this project as PGD continues to make textbook finds with ease in southwest Baffin Island. They also report mini-bulk samples taken from two earlier finds. The company continues this summer with their plan to investigate further geophysical anomalies in tandem with kimberlite indicator mineral data.

Renard Moves Towards Production

Moving away from Arctic diamond projects, Stornoway Diamond Corp. has added to this week’s mix with the formal commencement of the feasibility study for a mine at the Renard Diamond Project (central Quebec). This involves looking at how the proposed mine would affect the environment and local communities, increasing the capacity of the proposed mine from 5 kt/day to 8 kt/day, and a separate project to tie the mine into the electric power grid; amongst other items. The issues regarding corporate environmental and social responsibility are important as it shows that local stakeholders, i.e. the Quebec government and the local aboriginal (Cree) and non-aboriginal communities are on board with the project. The Impact and Benefits Agreement that the feasibility study considers is an important step in cementing this relationship.

As an addendum, the company announced that it had reached a pre-development agreement with the local Cree nation shortly after the initial publication of this article. This is an important step towards working out the Impact and Benefits Agreement necessary for the mine to develop.

In terms of exploration, SWY will continue expanding on the Foxtrot property that the Renard cluster is a part of. Winter drilling has already expanded the resources at Renard 3, 4, and 65. More drilling is happening this summer on these three kimberlite pipes.

While the economic recovery has reinvigorated consumer appetite for pretty carbon, the market still treats diamond juniors with some trepidation, being burnt by failures such as Tahera and lengthy lead times to production (e.g. Shore Gold and Fort à la Corne-Star).  Only prolonged stable economic growth and the development of some good projects to profitable production will see investors flock back to the diamond sector.

Disclaimer: The author holds shares of SWY, and SRM. Relevant comments are welcome and encouraged. Spam comments will be not posted and deleted. This article is based on the opinions and experience of the author. Please conduct due diligence when investing. ©KIM Report 2010 www.kimreport.com

Kimberlites and Diamonds of Western Canada

Posted by David

This year’s GeoCanada conference and related workshops saw some attention to diamonds and kimberlites. Specifically those located in the western Canadian sedimentary basin (WCSB), covering Alberta and Saskatchewan.

The two main kimberlite clusters in this region are the well-known Fort a la Corne (FalC), and the lesser known Buffalo Head Hills (BHH) occurrences. The former cluster is in Saskatchewan and has been the focus of a major JV between Shore Gold (operator) and Newmont, the background of which was discussed in previous KIM Report posts. On the technical aspect of things, Shore Gold has done a lot of work in characterizing the complex structure of their two most economic kimberlite pipes: Orion South and Star (both are ~100 Ma). These pipes are composed of multiple units each formed during a separate volcanic eruption millions of years ago on the margins of an ancient shallow inland sea that covered most of what is today called the Great Plains. There are at least five  main units: Pense, Viking, Early Joli Fou, Late Joli Fou, and Cantuar (see the 3D model of the Star kimberlite below: different colours represent different petrological units). These units each erupted at a different time over many thousand of years, and differ in petrology, diamond grade and diamond size distribution. To further complicate things, these eruptions occurred over a timespan during which the inland sea was alternately expanding and contracting. The effect of these sedimentary processes (e.g. erosion, transportation, deposition) on the erupted kimberlite material led to the concentration of diamonds in some rock units and the removal of diamonds from others.

The other less-studied cluster is the ~65-85 Ma BHH in Alberta. Both barren and diamond-bearing pipes occur, also with variable geology and diamond grades as with the FalC pipes, although the extent of the complexity is unknown. The highest grade pulled from a BHH sample so far is close to 0.9 c/t (K252). Most of the pipes are a JV between Canterra Minerals Corporation (TSX.V-CTM; 28.5%, operator), Shore Gold (28.5%), and EnCana Corporation (43%). Shore Gold and Canterra each carry 50% of the operating costs. Canterra is the result of the business arrangement between Diamondex Resources Ltd. (TSX.V-DSP) and Triex Minerals Corporation (TSX.V-TKM) in 2009. Diamondex and Shore Gold bought their shares in a deal with Stornoway Diamond Corp. back in 2007. They later purchased another 12% from Burnstone Ventures Inc. (CNSX-BVE, formerly Pure Diamonds). A smaller subset of diamond-bearing pipes has been discovered by Grizzly Discoveries Inc. (TSX.V-GZD). These kimberlites: BE-02 and BE-03, are in the southeast region of the BHH cluster, previously thought to be barren. Grizzly also owns interest in a couple of much smaller diamond plays to the ENE in the Birch Mountains area of Alberta, as does Shear Minerals.

A couple of other companies have diamond interests in the WCSB: Vaaldiam Mining Inc. (TSX-VAA – Candle Lake, Saskatchewan) and Forest Gate Energy (TSX.V-FGE, formerly Forest Gate Resources – Fort a la Corne, Saskatchewan). However, activity on these properties has been fairly light (see map image of kimberlites in the WCSB below).

Both the BHH and FalC clusters were initially discovered by activities relating to energy exploration – petroleum and uranium, respectively. The BHH pipes were discovered by re-evaluating aeromagnetic survey maps that had classified the anomalies caused by the pipes to be well-heads for the oil fields that clutter the region. Some diamonds from these pipes have even been found to be coated with petroleum when recovered. The FalC cluster was found during aeromagnetic surveys. These pipes are located under 80-100 m of gravel, sand, and clay.

Though in comparison to other diamond mining regions (e.g. the Northwest Territories or the Otish Mountains in Quebec) current grade numbers are rather low, diamond valuations that do exist (only from FalC at this point) are higher than average for Canadian kimberlites. Access to infrastructure is also better, particularly when compared to Arctic kimberlites. This bolsters the revenue $/t kimberlite coming from those pipes. The main hurdle with this is the geological complexity of the FalC (and to a lesser extent BHH). Overcoming this problem has taken Shore Gold and the previous owners of the FalC pipes the better part of 20 years to overcome with exhaustive drilling and geophysics. The amount of detail given in recent reports indicates that their geology and diamond characteristics are becoming less vague, at least for the Orion South and Star bodies. Now having more information where and how rich the higher-grade zones are at Orion and Star, have allowed Shore Gold (and Newmont) to almost finalize their mine plan. Mr. George Read, Shore Gold’s senior VP exploration and development, confidently expects a full net profit after all costs and taxes of ~$25/t (CAN) ore from the project as it stands. The 50+ other kimberlite pipes remaining at FalC, along with those at BHH represent possible future resources for Shore Gold and its partners beyond the two currently gearing up for production.

On an ending note, Shore Gold reported re-valuation (April 2010) of the diamond parcels it had originally sent out and had valuated in March 2008. Price increases (in US$/c) since then are 10-20% higher for every parcel. What to keep in mind here is how the American dollar (what the revenues come in) fares against the Canadian dollar (what the costs come in). Over the past two years, the exchange rate has fluctuated from about $1 (US) buying $0.98 (CAN) to $1.30 (CAN). How much of that price increase is due to supply/demand and not currency adjustment is uncertain.

Disclaimer: The author holds shares of SWY, SRM, and FGE. Relevant comments are welcome and encouraged. Spam comments will be not posted and deleted. This article is based on the opinions and experience of the author. Please conduct due diligence when investing. ©KIM Report 2010 www.kimreport.com

Resurgent Commodity Sector for 2010

Posted by David

The 2010 annual PDAC convention this week was resoundingly more vibrant and bustling than last year’s. The nice thing about commodity downturns is that they are often self-correcting given time. The excess of supply that leads to commodity price drops and mine closures also ceases mine development. With no new resources coming onto the pipeline, supply drops as existing deposits are tapped out. This drop in supply leads to an increase in the commodity price, beginning the cycle all over again.

This current resurgence is much to early to be mainly due to this process, lack of exploration typically takes years to manifest into resource shortages. Whatever the cause, the mood of exhibitors, investors, and geologists was significantly improved over 2009’s show. Though there are still many companies out there just hanging on, both those with quality and questionable properties.

Gold was still king of the commodities this year, unsurprising considering it has remained at ~$1100 for some time in spite of the predictions of certain pundits. Though keep in mind that price is in American dollars. Well-run gold producers such as Barrick, Goldcorp, and Wesdome, have been reporting steady and strong profits. The Wesdome booth at PDAC had some impressive display samples of quartz-vein ore containing visible gold mineralization from their Kiena mine. Although some producers are still struggling, e.g. Yamana.

The buzz about exotic metals such as yttrium, niobium, and the rare earth elements has died down a little since the excitement of last fall. Leading juniors in that field, such as Avalon and Matamec, were still well represented at the show. In terms of fundamentals, however, nothing has changed, our increased dependence on technologies is leading to a demand that will continue to ramp up with each passing year and the Chinese control virtually all production. Not a pretty picture from either an economic, strategic, or political view (for everyone but the Chinese that is).

Copper, nickel, and other base and ferrous metal prices have all climbed back up significantly. The earthquake in Chile barely caused a blip in copper prices (Chile produces about one third of the world’s copper), and metal producers like Amerigo and Lundin are starting to see their first real profits in over a year. Speaking with Amerigo reps at the PDAC, they predict a return of their one-vaunted dividend should copper prices hold close to their current levels.

The investment talks for the junior diamond sector saw increased attendance this year. The best was saved for the last for talks by Peregrine, Shear Minerals, Shore Gold, and Stornoway, discussing the most promising Canadian diamond projects and their various stages of development. Peregrine’s Chidliak project on Baffin Island continues to steal the spotlight with preliminary results from CH-6 that indicate the potential for the highest grade diamond find since A-154 South at Diavik in the 1990’s.

Chidliak is still many years from and possible mine. The Renard and Fort a la Corne deposits of Stornoway and Shore Gold, respectively, are each within five years of a potential mine.  Last fall’s announcement by Stornoway regarding the expanded resource at Renard-2 is putting the company at odds with Shore Gold for the title of owner of Canada’s (and for that matter, the world) largest undeveloped diamond deposit (video interview with SWY founder Eira Thomas HERE). Shear Minerals, though somewhat stagnated by lack of funds, had returned a promising grade of 0.862 c/t from the Notch kimberlite in the Churchill property.

The repeated message from all diamond companies is that world diamond prices have recovered, and possibly then some. Unlike metals, getting firm numbers on world diamond demand and pricing is difficult, but some estimates put current diamond prices as high as 25% over those of pre-crash 2008. With the recovery as of yet incomplete, this could spell a significant jump in share prices for quality diamond stocks over the next 12 months.

Disclaimer: The author holds shares of SWY, YRI, SRM, ARG, and LUN. This article is based on the personal opinions and experience of the author. Please conduct due diligence when investing. ©KIM Report 2010 www.kimreport.com

The Summer Exploration Season – Sans Fanfare

Posted by David

Now that commodities have recovered slightly and the stock indexes appear to be climbing out of the financial hole that was March 2009, investors – both institutional and individual, appear to be breathing some life into the mining juniors that have been so beaten down. The ones that remain solvent anyways.

On the diamond front, things are pretty quiet. Gold and silver, followed by base metals, have been attracting most of the press in regards to this resurgence. The return of capital to the diamond industry has been pretty subdued. However, this is not to say that is has been forgotten.

Diamonds Resurgent

An example is with Harry Winston Diamond Corp. that has seen is share price double to about $7/share in the past couple of months when some smart investors thought it may not be a bad idea to hold share in one of the highest grade gem diamond mines in the world (their retail arm notwithstanding). Kinross had the right idea when it acquired a 19.9% stake in the company during the lows of March.

Motapa Diamonds Inc., a junior diamond explorer in Lesotho has also doubled since the New Year as it is in the process of being acquired by Lucara Diamond Corp. (TSX.V-LUC). Their Mothae project draws many parallels with that of the nearby Letseng mine, well-know for its relatively abundant diamonds of exceptional size and quality (about 20c).

Gearing Up For a Recovery

The Canadian exploration front has been even more low-key. The only significant new find has been Peregrine Diamond’s Chidliak property on southern Baffin Island as discussed in a previous article. Other juniors are conserving their cash and focusing on their best projects. Stornoway recently announced that it would commence further drilling on their Renard project to prove up their case for a mine there. The only other project they are looking at now is the Aviat kimberlite complex on the Melville Peninsula in Nunavut having gotten some promising number from samples taken there last year. Smaller companies are having to conduct private placements at still-low share prices in order to pay for critical work on their properties. Such is the case with Dianor Resources issuing shares at $0.10 to pay in part for a 50 000 t bulk sample at their diamond-bearing Leadbetter conglomerate property near Wawa, Ontario.

Stagnation of Diamond Prospecting in Canada

Comparatively speaking, other companies have not had it so rosy. Shear Minerals is looking at a dearth of funding for its main project: Churchill after its partner, Stornoway, decided not to participate in the recent exploration season in order to fund the abovementioned projects. Like many other companies that previously had diamonds as their sole focus, Diamonds North has been looking at the potential for metals on its properties in the Arctic after some samples this winter showed an unexpected scarcity of diamonds. To round things off, Shore Gold, a classic punching-bag/favourite for many diamond investors is still trying to figure out how to reconcile low grades with ~100m of glacial overburden atop their kimberlites in Saskatchewan. Although they did recover a 7.99 c diamond from a mini-bulk sample recently taken by large diameter drilling to add to their promising repertoire of large diamonds found in the Fort a la Corne cluster. A more thorough discussion of the Fort a la Corne kimberlites can be found here.

Choose Your Partners Wisely

A third set of companies with promising properties appear to be in limbo. Mountain Province Diamonds Inc. is still at loggerheads with partner De Beers over the timeline from the rich Gahcho Kue diamond deposit in the Northwest Territories in spite of an updated mineral resource estimate released in late May. DeBeers is having a headache of its own through its majority holding of thinly-traded Archangel Diamonds Corp. with continued legal struggles with Russian companies (chiefly LUKoil) over the massive Grib diamond deposit in northwest Russia. De Beers, like many other companies seeking to do business in Russia, is learning that when you get into bed with Ivan (particularly on his turf); he usually ends up on top.

Recovery is a long way away. Especially in the diamond sector as it was already lagging near the tail end of the resource bubble that popped last year. But as with panning for diamonds, the companies with little weight and substance will be washed away by the financial currents and the gems will be left behind.

Disclaimer: The author owns shares in HW, SWY, and SRM. This article is based on the personal opinions and experience of the author. Please conduct due diligence when investing. ©KIM Report 2009 www.kimreport.com

Silver Linings

Posted by David

During this seemingly never-ending drop in equity prices, many analysts are recommending that now is the time to buy stocks as so many solid companies are trading at deep discounts. But what companies does one invest in currently? In terms of resource stocks, most are trading at 70-90% below their stock price last winter. Metal prices have yet to properly recover and most producers have either gone to great lengths in cutting production costs or have shut down their operations. Explorers have also strongly cut back on projects for 2009 or have gone into “hibernation mode” in an effort to preserve their remaining cash until this crisis abates and future private placements can be made.

There are some case examples for optimism however: Harry Winston recently reported net earnings of $1.17/share for Q3 compared to loss of $0.13/share in the previous year’s quarter. Retail jewellery sales offset decreased earnings from sales of rough diamonds due to decreased production resulting from grade variation in the main kimberlite pipe at the Diavik mine: A-154 South. Another case is the small-cap silver producer Great Panther Resources, mentioned in an earlier case study article, that has managed to reduce their operating costs from about $11/oz. to $7.40/oz. in the face of <$10/oz. silver (although we have seen a bit of recovery in the metals over the course of the week). However, news of this was later added to by the announcement of dilution in the form of a $2.7 million private placement. On the exploration end, Shear Minerals continues to discover more kimberlites with high diamond counts on its Churchill property. But, as with Great Panther, this was also followed by the announcement by Shear of a $1.18 million private placement and thus shareholders would see further dilution. In the meantime, Shear’s JV partner at Churchill, Stornoway Diamond Corp. has decided to focus the bulk of its resources into developing its Renard property into a mine. Although its Aviat project on the Melville Peninsula is a definite target for further exploration in 2009. True North Gems is preparing its Aappaluttoq ruby project in Greenland for mine permitting. This will allow them to sell the large stockpile of gems they have acquired from sampling over the past few years. Diamonds North, buoyed by high diamond counts from some of their kimberlites this year, is planning for a modest exploration program in 2009 and is currently working on finishing this year’s mini-bulk sampling program. There are many other companies like those aforementioned that are meeting or exceeding their stated goals. Positive news releases (e.g. this one), however, are promptly ignored by the market -or at least the retail investors.

An unavoidable fact is that the manufacturing and housing sectors are in a tight retraction worldwide. Commodities used in these fields: base metals, iron, aluminum, petroleum, and even some precious metals (silver, PGEs) will continue to see lessened demand as consumers disappear. Many analysts suggest that the US dollar is due for a significant collapse due to the variety of debts piled on America by the Bush government. Traditionally, this would cause investors to flock to precious metals (primarily gold) and other forms of solid investments (diamonds, other rare gemstones, etc.) in order to preserve their capital until the malaise has passed. This bodes well for companies mining and exploring for these commodities. Another silver lining to this recession is that low oil prices have given miners and explorers a break in operating costs via cheaper fuel.

The real challenge is in determining which of these companies will survive the downturn until they can start to benefit from increased demand. Factors to look for are a strong treasury, a demonstrated history of cutting costs, a willingness to open new revenue streams, and management ownership. Management must make serious decisions on whether to conserve cash and limit exploration activities or to spend to continue adding value to their properties. Often the latter involves offering new shares at the currently extremely low market prices in order to raise that cash as banks loans are not forthcoming.

Currently, there are excellent opportunities for investment in mining and exploration stocks. In particular, there is potential in the diamonds sector as it was already undervalued prior to the current crisis and diamond prices are more firm than that of other commodities. A final factor to consider is that tax-loss selling at the end of this year will result in further devaluation of many companies, adding to the allure for bargain hunters. For those who actually have cash left to invest at this point, a long term (3-5 yrs) outlook is mandatory. Those who do their homework and invest in a non-reactionary fashion will definitely benefit when this bear turns into a bull.

Disclaimer: The author holds 20 shares of HW, 4000 of SWY, 500 of SRM, 500 of GPR, and 1000 of TGX., most of which were bought at much higher prices than current. This article is based on the opinion and experience of the author. Please do your own due diligence when investing.

Diamond prospects develop despite record lack of investor confidence.

Posted by David

Recent market activity, to be conservative, has been devastating to resource stocks. Over the past six months, junior mining/exploration companies have been hit hard with up to 80% depreciation in their share prices. Many of these have slid strongly in spite of what would be considered by many to be positive news releases: financing obtained, higher than expected grade, large extensions of mineralized zones, etc.

 

Diamond stocks in particular continue to be a source of scorn for retail investors. Gone are the days seen in the 90’s and early 00’s where diamond companies were the darlings of the Canadian mining sector. However, recent financial market woes and investor panic do not change the fact that many of these companies hold properties with strong upside for the presence of a economic diamond deposit.

 

Two companies that appear to hold such projects, despite seeing their share prices drop over 70% in the past year or so, are Shear Minerals and Stornoway Diamonds. Both of these companies jointly operate the Churchill Project near Rankin Inlet, Nunavut.

 

This project has been described in earlier articles posted on the KIM Report, but the discovery of a new kimberlite body, named “Killiq”, on the property this season has expanded the potential for a significant diamond mine in the area. This kimberlite was found during RC drilling of a target established by following the G10 garnet-dominated indicator mineral train in the Sedna corridor and geophysics. Churchill has already been established as a leader in diamond developments with the evaluation of the large Kahuna kimberlite dyke. Killiq is of note as it is very similar petrologically to the PST kimberlite also on the property that has an established grade of 2.18 c/t. Petrologically, characteristics that PST and Killiq both share include large olivine macrocrysts, purple-red pyropes, and blue-green phlogopite mica.

 

Shear Minerals, the project operator and majority interest holder, has sent heavy mineral concentrate from Killiq for chemical analysis. If any of the garnets in the concentrate have high Cr and low Ca contents like the G10 garnets in the till samples that led to the drilling, then there is significant potential for diamond.

 

This is one of nine kimberlites discovered this field season at Churchill, and is one of two, alongside the Kahuna breccia discovery, that was found to have significant petrological similarity to other pipes on the property with high diamond grades. The Kahuna breccia is interesting as it appears to be an extension of the Kahuna hypabyssal dyke, but it is of explosive, rather than magmatic nature.

 

Other activity that has occurred with Churchill include a mini-bulk sample of 26.1 t (wet) from the Notch kimberlite for an initial assessment of diamond content and quality for stones >0.86 mm in diameter. Further till sampling programs and geophysical (gravity, magnetic, etc.) surveys are ongoing.

 

In total there are 88 known kimberlite occurrences on the property with many at or beyond the mini-bulk sampling stage.

 

Stornoway has another property (90% owned) at the advanced exploration stage with Aviat on the Melville Peninsula in eastern Nunavut. Earlier this year, a 20.6 t mini-bulk sample from AV267 sheet, the largest body on the property, returned a grade of 1.62 c/t including a 3.64 c white gem. A larger bulk sample of 202 t is currently being processed with results expected by the end of the year. There are ten other kimberlite occurrences at Aviat discovered so far. Although some of these bodies may be separate outcrops of the same. All of the Aviat bodies are similar in petrology and diamond content (so far) and are of 535 Ma (Cambrian) age.

 

An obscure property on the sidelines a relatively short time ago, the high diamond grades coming out of Aviat have made it approach (and potentially exceed) the Churchill project in terms of importance.

 

Of course, all of these developments are being overshadowed to some degree by the impending pre-feasibility report on the Renard kimberlites. Part of the Foxtrot property that includes the Lynx and Hibou dykes as well, Renard already has had detailed diamond tonnage and valuation work done. Investor relations at Stornoway has acknowledged that there have been numerous delays in releasing the report, and not all of them related to the project. Peregrine Diamonds and Shore Gold have also employed AMEC, the same firm used by Stornoway to get their studies done, and this has resulted in a backlog. The revised date is now sometime is the later half of October. It will include the resource calculation and the economic study with an aim to be understandable to the non-expert investor. Unsurprisingly, the company remains optimistic that the report will allow them to move to the feasibility stage.

 

All of this has been accompanied by a drop in stock price from almost $0.90 to the $0.25 level. Brief reversals in the downward trend have been provided by the encouraging diamond valuations for Renard last fall (over $100/c) and an arrangement with the company’s creditors to eliminate its outstanding debt. However, current market pressures have kept this stock, along with all others in the sector, down.

 

Diamond companies and investors are desperate for a catalyst that will stop the haemorrhaging in the sector. Much of this will occur when (if?) the financial sector is done cutting out the dead wood, the rest will have to come from the companies themselves in the form of breakthrough news. Perhaps the impending pre-feasibility study for Renard will do that for Stornoway.

 

Conference-Induced Hiatus

Posted by David

Sorry for the lack of updates the past few weeks. My time had been taken up in preparing my research for presentation at the aforementioned 9th International Kimberlite Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

The conference was a big success. Canadians made up about a third of the ~450 participants, with Russia, Australia, the U.K., the U.S.A., Japan, South Africa, and Germany also making large contributions. Although mainly an academic conference, representatives of companies such as Rio Tinto, Diamondex (TSX.V-DSP), BHP Billiton, Metalex (TSX.V-MTX), Indicator Minerals (TSX.V-IME), Teck Cominco, Shear Minerals, and Shore Gold were present. Private company De Beers also have a strong presence through both its exploration/mining arms and the Diamond Trading Company (DTC). Topics of discussion included diamonds and their formation, kimberlite emplacement, exploration techniques, and the mantle.

More information on the highlights of the conference to come…

The long and winding road to a Quebec diamond mine

Posted by David

Stornoway Diamond Corp. (TSX-SWY) saw a 24.14% jump in stock price today, up seven cents to $0.36/share. The rise followed the resumption of trading following a halt this morning due to a financing-related news release. SWY reported that they have received $22 million from a private placement of 24,444,444 common shares at ninety cents a share. This is a premium of 195% on top of the opening price of $0.305 today. The participants in the private placement are Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (TSX-AEM) and Lorito Holdings Ltd. This $22 million will go to pay off debt in the form of debentures held by AEM and Lorito. AEM is already a significant shareholder of SWY, and with this transaction they will hold 17.6% of the outstanding shares. After the completion of this transaction, SWY will be debt-free.

 

This transaction is something of a coup in the current market. Juniors have been struggling to obtain funds to develop their projects and pay off debts. The credit market has been mostly deaf and blind to the woes of these companies as many lenders are themselves finding it a struggle to remain solvent. For a mining and exploration junior to pull off a private placement at a pre-subprime crisis share price is something of a shock (albeit a pleasant one) to investors and analysts who have become used to seeing the market cap of companies such as SWY slide by fifty to eighty percent. By offering equity to pay off its debts, SWY has managed to find a creative alternative to solving its cash problems in a bear market. The main upside here is that the dilution of the stock is one third of that if SWY were to issue stock at market price.

 

Now with balanced books, SWY faces only one major and immediate hurdle – to finance the construction of a diamond mine on their Foxtrot property in Quebec. This project, focusing mainly on the Renard kimberlite pipes, but also the Lynx and Hibou kimberlite dykes nearby, is joint owned 50/50 with SOQUEM and is fully described in an earlier article. SWY’s share of the mine construction costs will likely be over $100 million. The actual numbers are due out in September with the pre-feasibility study. The report was initially due this summer, but similar projects submitted earlier by Peregrine and Shore Gold tied up AMEC, the company contracted to conduct the study, until recently. Should the report be positive, as the geology and current diamond prices suggest, a significant amount of capital investment must be made to bring in the needed infrastructure for a mine. SWY will have to carry at least 50% of these costs.

 

Immediate of these costs is road access. Renard will not be an arctic diamond mine, dependent on airlifts and unpredictable ice roads for supply, but rather a site accessible by land year round. SWY is in talks with Western Troy Capital Resources Inc. (TSX.V-WRY), Strateco Resources Inc. (TSX-RSC), and Eastmain Resources Inc. (TSX-ER) – other mineral/metal exploration companies with projects in the Otish Mountains, local communities, and the Quebec government to build the “Route Monts Otish”. This partnership would provide strong benefits for all parties involved by sharing the cost of construction. SWY will need to bring September’s report to the table when the parties decide who pays what share of the road costs. It is also possible that the construction will bring in electricity service as well, further reducing the large bill SWY faces.

 

After September, SWY will have to come to a decision on how to fund the mine. Even if the Quebec government pays its full 50% share and the aforementioned road plan comes through, the cost to SWY will be well into the tens of millions of dollars. The company has a number of options to consider in obtaining the cash necessary to build the mine:

 

(1) They can go the traditional route and get financing from credit institutions. If the credit market simmers down by the winter this may be a possibility. Factors that would attract a lender are that the company has settled its accounts, the Foxtrot property has high and fairly well established diamond potential, and the company has many other promising secondary properties such as Aviat and Churchill (the latter a JV with Shear Minerals).

 

(2) Future private placements can be made. This will dilute the stock, but by how much is dependent on how the share price is doing at the time of issue. If today’s rise in share price is any indication, a positive report in September may be the catalyst investors need to return the company to the ~$1.00 level. In addition, management has established that they possess some expertise in brokering strong deals with large investment players (Rio Tinto is another major shareholder, with ~11% of the company).

 

(3) The company may bring in a third party to purchase a portion of their share in exchange for funding most of SWY’s costs a la the Franco-Nevada strategy.

 

(4) Interested parties could be sold secondary assets in exchange for cash to fund the mine. In addition to the aforementioned Aviat and Churchill projects, SWY holds promising advanced and reconnaissance stage projects in Nunavut, Ontario, the Northwest Territories, Alberta, and Saskatchewan.

 

It is likely the company will use a mix involving one, some, or even all of the above options to in order to proceed with construction.

 

Given that Quebec is regularly acclaimed as one of the top mining-friendly provinces in Canada, and that the province has a direct stake in the project, there seems to be fewer speedbumps on the road to Renard. Management with have to use every means at their disposal in order to navigate markets wracked with investor apathy towards diamond players.

 

Disclaimer: The author holds 2000 shares of SWY. This article is based on the personal opinion and experience of the author. Please do your own due diligence when investing.

 

 

Large carats at Gahcho Kue, worth the wait?

Posted by David

Earlier this month, Mountain Province Diamonds (TSX-MPV, AMEX-MDM) dropped a big rock in the otherwise stagnant waters of diamond exploration and investment. The company announced that they had recovered a 25.13 c colourless octahedral diamond of exceptional clarity from the Tuzo kimberlite in the Gahcho Kue cluster, Northwest Territories. This diamond was valued at approximately (USD) $17,500/c, or $439,775 total. This is the largest diamond recovered in Canada during an exploration project. 

 

MPV discovered the Gahcho Kue cluster, which lies in the AK property in the Kennady Lake region. It owns 49% of the project, with De Beers Canada as the operator and majority stake holder. The geologic environment of the project is in the southeast Slave craton. The cluster was discovered in 1997 and DeBeers Canada (then Monopros) was quickly brought in as a JV partner where is could earn up to 51% of the project by shouldering a large portion of the costs. DeBeers has since exercised this option. Four main kimberlite bodies comprise the cluster (see map): Tuzo, 5034, Hearne, and Tesla. Tesla is not currently considered to be a resource as its small surface area, 0.4 hectares, is less than one third that of the next largest body: Tuzo at 1.4 hectares.

 

The geology of the three currently economic pipes is varied. 5034 is an irregular body of hypabyssal kimberlite, Hearne is a mix of hypabyssal and diatreme facies kimberlite, and Tuzo is believed to be the deeper part of a diatreme with no root zone found as of yet. These bodies together create a large reserve of ore that has been thoroughly drilled and modeled over the past decade. In a general way the geology could be seen as an intermediate between the Churchill (Stornoway Diamonds & Shear Minerals) and Snap Lake (De Beers Canada) projects that are entirely hypabyssal kimberlite and the Fort a la Corne (Shore Gold & Newmont) project where all of the kimberlite found is pyroclastic or resedimented pyroclastic.

 

The diamond was recovered from LDDH sampling in March of this year. After the sampling was completed the kimberlite was made into a concentrate at De Beers’ Grand Prairie, Alberta facility and then shipped to the GEMDL laboratory in South Africa (also run by De Beers) to recover the remaining diamonds. When this in completed, the diamonds will be sent to the DTC facility in London, U.K., for cleaning and valuation.

 

Of the three main kimberlites, Tuzo is the least developed in terms of sampling. The recent bulk sample was in part an effort to rectify this. 5034 has 8.7 Mt of indicated ore at 1.6 c/t and 4.9 Mt of inferred ore at 1.7 c/t. Hearne has 5.7 Mt of indicated ore at 1.7 c/t and 1.5 Mt of inferred ore at 1.53 c/t. Tuzo, meanwhile only has 10.6 Mt of inferred ore at 1.15 c/t.  MPV and De Beers are trying to remove the uncertainty with this body. For comparative purposes Diavik a few hundred km to the north has about 29.8 Mt of reserves in total at 3.2 c/t (measured+indicated), or 95.36 Mc. Thus far, Gahcho Kue has about 46 Mc (indicated+inferred). Keep in mind that the Diavik mine has unusually high grade. MPV estimates a mine life of about 24 years.

 

In terms of diamond valuation, an independent 2006 report by WWW International Diamond Consultants Ltd. gave (in USD) $101/c for 5034, $54/c for Hearne, and $43/c for Tuzo. The average for all three pipes was $75/c and it was noted that proper cleaning (usually in a hot acid bath) would raise the value of many of the diamonds by up to 10%.

 

It has been over ten years since the discovery at Gahcho Kue. Mining is expected to begin in full by 2012, giving about a fourteen year lag between discovery and mine. Diavik took only ten years in total to begin full capacity mining and Ekati took even less. Following statements for interviews with MPV management, it would seem that they would prefer a faster to-mine plan, but De Beers has preferred a more methodical approach. In light of what happened at Jericho with Tahera, perhaps this might be a more prudent option. Though perhaps De Beers has been focusing the bulk of its attention on their 100% owned Snap Lake and Victor projects in the Northwest Territories and Ontario, respectively.

 

Regardless of the slow timetable set for developing the project, the discovery of this diamond, along with other ones >5 c found in the past few years, has established the potential for large, high quality stones. As diamond price goes up exponentially with carat size, the profit margins for the future mine are looking larger. Now that above average grades, decent diamond values, and large, high quality, high value diamonds have been established at Gahcho Kue the main hurdle is to finance the project to completion as it will be about four years until commercial production. MPV needs about $370 million to fund its 49% share. The current market cap of the company is $280 million. The company has about $1.5 million net in cash and medium-term deposits, and has invested about $65 million in the project overall. While the sale of the diamond announced last week should pay for a few drill holes, in order to keep the full 49% share of the project MPV will undoubtedly require financing. This strategy may run into some resistance as diamonds are not a hot item in the current market and lenders in general are skittish after their collective failure to recognize the risks of sub prime mortgages and ABCP. Also, the fate of the aforementioned last diamond mine to open in the Arctic may be scaring way any potential suitors. Raising more capital by dilution is only a partial solution at this moment considering the vast funds involved. Although the company is not poorly positioned to issuing private placements effectively as its stock price has not suffered anywhere near to the degree that many of its peers have (mainly $4 to $5 over the past year). Another option is to default on their share of the costs and let De Beers’ deep pockets take care of things in return for letting their share slide to 40%. A third option that is being signaled by a strategic review of the company as alluded to in a National Post article last week is that the company may be putting itself up for sale.

 

Regardless of what option the company pursues, the nature of the deposit is likely to reap large rewards for shareholders when interest in the diamond market returns. What remains to be seen is that whether MPV chooses the option that gives the best gain to the shareholders.

 

Disclaimer: The author holds no shares of MPV. This article is based on the author’s personal research and experience. Please perform your own due diligence when investing.

 

The Stornoway without a Dion

Posted by David

To use an overused comparison in these current market climes, the diamond sector is the Rodney Dangerfield of mining stocks as it “don’t get no respect”. In this way, the diamond juniours are much like the official opposition (for the non-Canadian readers, Stornoway is also the name for the official residence of the leader of the opposition, currently Stephane Dion). To give a more focused discussion of the issue than did a previous article, presented is the case of Stornoway Diamonds (TSX-SWY).

 

The stock has been on a fairly steady decline since this time last year going from ~$1.20/share to about $0.37/share at current. Even the news that acclaimed diamond consultants – WWW International Diamond Consultants Ltd., had upped the estimated valuations for diamonds from the Renard kimberlites (Renard, together with the Lynx dykes, comprises the Foxtrot Property in Central Quebec, and is a 50/50 joint venture with SOQUEM Inc.) only caused a mere blip up from 0.35 to 0.43 that evaporated in the last two weeks.

 

In detail, the report displayed increased values for diamonds from Renard 2 and 3 (from U.S. $109/c to $121/c) and The North Complex Zone of Renard 4 ($69/c to $79/c), increases of 11% and 14% respectively. Since the pullback after the news, the stock has bounced around the mid thirty cent level. So what gives? The predominant idea here is that since last summer, most investors are still very wary of juniours, even ones with established and advance projects such as Foxtrot and, to a lesser extent, Churchill (joint venture with Shear Minerals). For Renard, the pre-feasibility study (NI 43-101 compliant) is due out sometime during this quarter and many investors may be waiting on that. The cost of a road to the potential mine site is one of the most speculated values.

 

Aside from Renard, the other properties in the Foxtrot property hold promise as well. The Lynx series of dykes produced a grade of 1.07 c/t from a 494 t bulk sample. Not enough sampling has been done to allow for a diamond valuation, but the sample did include a gem-quality octahedron weighing in at a whopping 21.53 c (pictured). A minibulk sample from the Hibou dyke, 1.3 km from the Renard bodies (see map), gave a grade of 1.26 c/t from 30.4 t of kimberlite. The largest stone from this sample was a 1.01 c octahedron.

 

After Renard, the next most advanced property is the Churchill project (JV with Shear Minerals), a series of kimberlite dykes located in the Churchill craton in Nunavut. This property was discussed the earlier Arctic Diamonds and Churchill articles.

 

SWY also holds a number of other advanced-level diamond prospects. The most promising of these is the group of eleven kimberlite bodies at Aviat on the Melville Peninsula, North of the aforementioned Churchill project. What really is really interesting about this project lately is the dense media separation results from January 2008 that reported a grade of 1.63 c/t from 20.6 t taken from the AV267 body, and included a 3.64 c stone. AV267 is a sheet-shaped body of macrocrystic hypabyssal kimberlite. Thus far, drilling has delineated AV267 to have an average thickness of 3 m and to extend at least 2000m along  strike and 500 m down dip (dip angle is 8-20 degrees). This is similar to the body at Snap Lake. Kahuna at Churchill is also similar in deposit shape, but it is a vertical sheet instead of the subhorizontal one at Aviat. The project began as a JV with SWY, BHP Billiton, and Hunter Exploration Group (a private firm). Last month SWY acquired BHP’s share of the project, making the split now 90% SWY and 10% Hunter. SWY also have 100% of the marketing rights for any Aviat stones.

 

SWY made news a couple of years back due to its aggressive takeover of Ashton Mining Canada. The main gain in this for SWY was the acquisition of Ashton’s share in the Foxtrot Project. SWY also gets a lot of press coverage because of its CEO, Eira Thomas, a celebrity in the diamond exploration industry due to her part in the discovery of the Diavik mine working for the then-juniour exploration company Aber Diamonds (now Harry Winston Diamonds). Her background and media appeal have made her popular with the press in an industry where companies are usually run by stolid old white guys. The acquisition of Ashton did not only add just properties to the company, but talent as well. Tom McCandless, a renowned and well-published specialist on North American diamonds (read Barren Lands by Kevin Krajick), stayed on with SWY as a consultant after the takeover and is now their chief mineralogist. Matt Manson, formerly VP marketing/technical services & control for Aber (now Harry Winston), came into SWY through the acquisition of Contact Diamond Corporation and is now company president.

 

In spite of these promising results and experienced management, SWY, like most diamond juniours, has been beaten into the ground. With the price at a severe low, investors will either shy away or look at the situation as a buying opportunity. SWY previously has been the focus of a lot of vitriol on investor bulletin boards such as www.stockhouse.com due to its aggressive takeover of Ashton, but shareholder crankiness aside, this is not the cause of the perceived downside.

 

SWY’s number one project is Foxtrot, specifically Renard. As a mine becomes more of a distinct possibility, the need for financing becomes impossible to ignore. Road and electricity access must be established, buildings erected, and equipment purchased. This will likely cost into the hundreds of millions of dollars. As of January 31^st, SWY had just under $18 million in cash and equivalents. Financing by dilution at current prices is unlikely, as management is a significant stockholder and do not want to see their equity devastated. That leaves turning to banks and the like for funds to construct the mine. The “subprime slime” that still sticks to financial institutions makes getting a loan far more difficult now than this time last year. However, considering the experience of the management and the premium nature of the properties, the choices made are likely to be in the best interests of the shareholders.

 

Disclaimer: The author holds 500 shares of SWY that he bought at $0.73/share and has only mildly freaked out about the price dropping to $0.37/share. This article is based on the personal opinions and experiences of the author. Please do your own due diligence when investing.

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